[看好评级]LAND TRANSPORT SECTOR:TAXI STABILISING&FARE INCREASE FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT

时间:2018年09月14日 10:25:23 中财网
Maintain Overweight on the Land Transport sector due to positive industryrestructuring and the worst being over for the Taxi industry
PTC says that fare increase will be up to 4.3%
Maintain Accumulate on ComfortDelGro; unchanged target price of $2.78
Keeping our target price for now, until exact quantum of fare increase is announced(our current model assumes 0% change in Rail fares)
What is the news?
The Land Transport Authority (LTA) has published motor vehicle population and TaxiDriver Vocational Licence (TDVL) data for July 2018.
The Public Transport Council (PTC) has commenced the annual 2018 Fare ReviewExercise. Public transport operators may submit their fare applications by Oct. 1, andthe PTC will announce its decision on the fare adjustment quantum in 4Q18.
How do we view this?
The Positives
+ Marginal +0.1% MoM growth in taxi population. Comfort Taxi was the only operatorwhose fleet grew MoM (+69 taxis)。 This is on the back of the recent announcement topurchase a total of 1,200 taxis (replacement and expansion capex)。 All other operators’fleets contracted MoM. The Singapore taxi fleet has a net MoM increase of +12 taxis.
+ Rate of YoY decline in taxi population continues to show sign of bottoming. YoYcontraction had peaked in April 2018 at -19%, and the pace of contraction has sloweddown for three consecutive months. We believe the worst is over for the Taxi industry,in view of the positive impact following the exit of Uber and resultant restructuring ofthe ride-hailing industry. However, unlikely to see YoY growth by the end of 2018.
+ Rental cars YoY growth continues to taper; second consecutive month of single-digitgrowth from double-digit growth since December 2013. Rental cars population hascontracted MoM and YTD. We were expecting population to start contracting, on thebasis of earlier media reports of unhired cars from Lion City Rentals (LCR) being put upfor sale in the used-car market. In addition, only 51% of private hire chauffeurs hadpassed the Private Hire Car Driver's Vocational Licence (PDVL) by the June 30 deadline.This is a material negative impact to the available pool of licenced drivers able to rentcars to offer private hire chauffeur service.
+ Momentum for TDVL issued has been maintained. The total number of TDVL issuedfor 7M18 YTD has doubled YoY. This has been sufficient to offset the natural attritionof licence expiries. The number of valid TDVL holders remains flat at +1.0% YTD. Wemaintain our view that a sustained average of about 400 new TDVLs issued monthlywould be sufficient to sustain growth in number of valid TDVL holders.
+ SBS Transit's Rail segment will benefit from higher fares. Direct impact will be anearlier breakeven for Downtown Line (DTL)。 Recall that the full DTL commencedoperations in October 2017. DTL breakeven is expected in 2Q19 or 3Q19. Note thatfare increase does not affect SBS Transit's Bus segment revenue, as it is on thetendered government bus contracting model (BCM)。

Investment Action
We maintain Overweight on the Land Transport sector, on the positive industryrestructuring following the exit of Uber and the worst being over for the Taxi industry. Wemaintain our Accumulate rating on ComfortDelGro, with unchanged target price of $2.78.
□ .R.i.c.h.a.r.d. .L.e.o.w  .辉.立.证.券.(.香.港.).有.限.公.司
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